Download e-book for kindle: What Are The Odds?: Chance In Everyday Life by Mike Orkin

By Mike Orkin

ISBN-10: 0716735601

ISBN-13: 9780716735601

Michael Orkin, a professor of data and knowledgeable on playing video games, lays naked the evidence approximately probability, odds and choice making in either playing and non-gambling functions. He additionally dispels a few universal myths approximately coincidences, randomness, reason and impression.

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In other words, on a microscopic level (and perhaps on any level) , it is impossible for the observer to be completely detached from the observation. On a subatomic level, there's no such thing as the proverbial fly on the wall, unobtrusively watching how things unfold. The very existence of the fly, in this case, the scientist and measuring device , change the pic­ ture . It turns out that if you want to know the precise path of a subatomic object, the best you can do is give probabilities that the object will be in various locations .

On the other hand, someone in tune with Eastern mysticism would assert that chance provides a way to tap into the flow of the universe . The great Swiss psychologist Carl Jung, who had a healthy respect for the spiritual side of chance, asserted that the I Ching was based on the principle of synchronicity (his term) , which asserts that all things in the universe, even seem­ ingly unrelated events, are somehow connected. As Jung put it, " synchronicity takes the coincidence of events in space and time as meaning something more than mere chance, namely, a peculiar interdependence of objective events among them­ selves as well as with the subj ective states of the observer or observers .

In 1 9 6 1 Lorenz, a research meteorologist at the Massa­ chusetts Institute of Technology, used a clunky, Royal McBee computer to simulate weather systems . Using a simple set of equations to run his weather model, Lorenz input initial val­ ues and let his computer take the system through a series of iterations representing the development of weather patterns. As the system progressed, Lorenz's computer printed a graph of the weather. One day, when Lorenz wanted to study a particular sequence of weather conditions, he plugged in the same ini­ tial conditions that he had used in an earlier experiment, expecting the new graph to fit the old graph and continue from where the old graph ended.

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What Are The Odds?: Chance In Everyday Life by Mike Orkin

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