By National Research Council, Division on Engineering and Physical Sciences, Board on Mathematical Sciences and Their Applications, Neel Krishnan, Scott Weidman, John Kambhu
The steadiness of the economic system and the possibility of systemic occasions to change its functionality have lengthy been serious matters for principal bankers and researchers. fresh occasions recommend that older types of systemic shocks may well now not catch the entire attainable paths of such disturbances or account for the expanding complexity of the economic climate. to aid check those issues, the Federal Reserve financial institution of latest York and the NRC cosponsored a convention that introduced jointly engineers, scientists, economists, and fiscal industry specialists to advertise larger knowing of systemic possibility in quite a few fields. The ebook provides an exam of instruments utilized in ecology and engineering to review systemic cave in in these parts; a overview of present traits in financial learn on systemic chance, the funds method, and the marketplace of interbank cash; and for context, descriptions of ways systemic threat within the economic system impacts buying and selling actions.
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Extra info for New Directions for Understanding Systemic Risk: A Report on a Conference Cosponsored by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York and the National Academy of Sciences
The fact that the pathway on the way down differs from the pathway on the way up is a hysteresis effect. Levin pointed out that, unlike systems designed for robustness, complex adaptive systems are systems in which whatever robustness exists has to emerge from the collective properties of the individual units that make up the system; there is no planner or manager whose decisions completely control the system. Therefore, there are no guarantees that things will work well. This leads us to the problem of the global commons, in which we all engage in behaviors based on our own agendas and interests; from these individual behaviors, system properties emerge.
Many components of the financial system pay attention to these emergent indicators, and what the indicators imply about collective behaviors feeds back to affect individual behavior, but on very different scales of organization and time. Behavioral ecologists have developed some understanding of the principles of collective decision making among animals. Complex adaptive systems consist of heterogeneous collections of individual units that interact with one another and thereby influence how the whole system evolves.
The rich literature of epidemic theory, both mathematical and computational, might then be applicable to understanding runs on banks, as long as this approach was properly augmented with knowledge of human behaviors that contribute Copyright © National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved. html SYSTEMIC RISK IN ECOLOGY AND ENGINEERING 37 specifically to bank contagion. Levin suggested that it might also be possible to transfer recent work on social learning to the study of the financial sector.
New Directions for Understanding Systemic Risk: A Report on a Conference Cosponsored by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York and the National Academy of Sciences by National Research Council, Division on Engineering and Physical Sciences, Board on Mathematical Sciences and Their Applications, Neel Krishnan, Scott Weidman, John Kambhu