New PDF release: Estimating Terrorism Risk (Rand Corporation Monograph)

By Henry H. Willis (Editor)

ISBN-10: 0833038346

ISBN-13: 9780833038340

ISBN-10: 0833040936

ISBN-13: 9780833040930

The dept of native land safety is chargeable for maintaining the USA from terrorism. It does so in part throughout the city parts safety Initiative, notwithstanding its distribution has been criticized for no longer reflecting probability. This monograph deals a realistic definition of terrorism hazard and a style for estimating it that addresses inherent uncertainties. It additionally demonstrates a framework for comparing replacement threat estimates. ultimately, it makes 5 techniques for bettering source allocation.

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Extra resources for Estimating Terrorism Risk (Rand Corporation Monograph)

Example text

This point identifies an important limitation of event-based models. That is, results are dependent on a large number of underlying assumptions. The RMS Terrorism Risk Model allows analysts to test the robustness of model results to assumptions through parametric analysis of threat, vulnerability, and consequences. One way this is done is through use of elicited threat outlooks. The expert elicitation process used by RMS has produced three perspectives on terrorist threat for the next year: a standard, enhanced, and reduced threat outlook.

That is, results are dependent on a large number of underlying assumptions. The RMS Terrorism Risk Model allows analysts to test the robustness of model results to assumptions through parametric analysis of threat, vulnerability, and consequences. One way this is done is through use of elicited threat outlooks. The expert elicitation process used by RMS has produced three perspectives on terrorist threat for the next year: a standard, enhanced, and reduced threat outlook. 1 Each perspective represents an aggregation of different beliefs about terrorist motivations and capabilities.

Haimes (2004) notes that risk assessment of rare and extreme events requires special consideration of the tails of these distributions, and that the expected value often misrepresents true risk. Conversely, estimates of the tail of the distribution will be very dependent upon assumptions when considering events like terrorism where there is great uncertainty about events and limited historical information. For this reason, and to simplify, our continued discussion of consequences considers the expected value of the distribution of damage.

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Estimating Terrorism Risk (Rand Corporation Monograph) by Henry H. Willis (Editor)


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