By Ronald MacDonald, Rod Cross
A key goal of the vital ecu Economies (CEE) on their transition direction from deliberate to extra market-oriented economies has been club of the ecu Union (EU). the beginning of monetary and fiscal Union (EMU) in 1999 has further club of the EMU to the schedule for the CEEs. the duty of the so-called Visègrad international locations (the Czech and Slovak Republics, Hungary and Poland) of getting ready for ecu and EMU club is the major subject matter underlying the papers contained during this quantity. there are lots of matters to be resolved sooner than the Visègrad nations are admitted into the ecu, and this quantity makes a speciality of the problems on the subject of macroeconomic rules and fiscal region constructions. The chapters of Central Europe in the direction of financial Union:Macroeconomic Underpinnings and fiscal Reputation include new theoretical and empirical effects and in addition finished institutional overviews. The meant readership of the publication is coverage makers and economists operating within the educational and monetary sectors.
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Extra resources for Central Europe towards Monetary Union: Macroeconomic Underpinnings and Financial Reputation
If the current ratio of foreign debt to exports is not increasing, then the country is likely to be able to sustain the debt path in the absence of structural change with negative consequences for the current account. As a measure of internal balance we look to the inflation rate, with the budget deficit as the corresponding policy instrument. The aggregate budget deficit is a necessary, but not sufficient indicator for internal balance, for institutional, measurement and structural reasons. Fiscal consolidation will involve major structural changes in the budget.
Evidence that the real exchange rates of Hungary and Poland have exhibited some mean reversion since the inception of the transition period is reported. Determining how well economic transition is going is a question that has exercised economists and politicians since the earliest days after the fall of Communism in central and Eastern Europe. Early studies found little evidence that structural change had gone very far (see, for example, Berg and Blanchard, 1994, Borensztein, Demkas and Ostry, 1993, Calvo and Coricelli, 1993, Blanchard, Commander and Coricelli, 1994).
J>. 3079 Trend ADF Table 5. 7385 Trend ADF Table 6. 6727 Trend ADF Table 7. ,. 43 Table 8. 89 _ ~~- ~ ... _1_. 0254 Trend ADF Table 9. 4427 ; ! 3 5 5% Table 10. 9444 Trend ADF Table 11. 9444 . 43 5% Table 12. 4415 Trend ADF Table 13. 45 5% t Statistics on : Trend Term ! 45 5% Table 14. 0675 0\ Vl 57 REFERENCES Begg, D" L. Halpern and C. 5, EastWest Institute, New York. Berg, A. and O. Blanchard (1994), in The Transition in Eastern Europe: Country Studies, University of Chicago Press, Chicago. , S.
Central Europe towards Monetary Union: Macroeconomic Underpinnings and Financial Reputation by Ronald MacDonald, Rod Cross