By K.D. Pavate
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Additional resources for A Matter of Chance
It is interesting to realise that when P(B/A) is being computed, we are essentially computing P(B) with respect to the reduced sample space A, rather than with respect to the original sample space S. When calculating the probability of event B, we are really asking ourselves how probable it is that A MATTER OF CHANCE 38 i s WpPj •A A A * A T 0I T Sample space An ace and a king are present together in six ways WITH STRINGS ATTACHED 39 we shall be in event B knowing that we must also be in S. On the other hand, when we compute P(B/A) we ask ourselves how probable it is that we are in B knowing that we must also be in A.
However, bank managers are experienced persons and have seen a large number of industrialists of all kinds in their careers. They have an accumulated knowledge about industries, people, markets for various products, state of the economy, competition and so on. Based on this background experience the manager produces a subjective measure of probability. His assessment might be that the applicant sitting in front of him and requesting a loan has only a 60% chance of success. MEASURES OF UNCERTAINTY 21 Yes or No ?
This may or may not always be the case. There are many situations in which the measurement of certainty of an outcome is required, but where the experiment is of a "once for all" type. A bank manager would like to know whether he should lend money to a particular industrialist. He is worried about the possible outcome of such an investment. Will it result in a profit, break even situation or a loss for the bank? The manager cannot repeat the experiment of lending money to the same industrialist a large number of times in order to estimate the relative frequency of success!
A Matter of Chance by K.D. Pavate