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When I started running my leg, the runners near me were (pretty much) a random sample of the runners in the race. So where does the bias come from? During my time on the course, the chance of overtaking a runner, or being overtaken, is proportional to the difference in our speeds. To see why, think about the extremes. If another runner is going at the same speed as me, neither of us will overtake the other. If someone is going so fast that they cover the entire course while I am running, they are certain to overtake me.

Py. Exercise 3-2. In most foot races, everyone starts at the same time. If you are a fast runner, you usually pass a lot of people at the beginning of the race, but after a few miles everyone around you is going at the same speed. When I ran a long-distance (209 miles) relay race for the first time, I noticed an odd phenomenon: when I overtook another runner, I was usually much faster, and when another runner overtook me, he was usually much faster. At first I thought that the distribution of speeds might be bimodal; that is, there were many slow runners and many fast runners, but few at my speed.

You can also assume that the percentage of girls named Florida is small. Rules of Probability | 49 Monty Hall The Monty Hall problem might be the most contentious question in the history of probability. The scenario is simple, but the correct answer is so counterintuitive that many people just can’t accept it, and many smart people have embarrassed themselves not just by getting it wrong but by arguing the wrong side, aggressively, in public. Monty Hall was the original host of the game show Let’s Make a Deal.

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A Bayesian model for local smoothing in kernel density estimation by Brewer M. J.


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